Apr 26, 2012; New York, NY, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell during the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

Chargers Trade-Down Scenarios – 2013 NFL Draft


By JAMES FEDEWA

With the NFL Draft approaching in less than three weeks, draft enthusiasts, draftniks and super-fans are guessing what their team necessities are and who they should draft. The unpredictability of the NFL Draft is probably the most intriguing aspect of the annual draft craze, with new team additions and improvements that keep us all guessing “who’s going where and in what round.” Draft Value adds to the craze too, as potential first round picks, which slid and were drafted in the second, or third…

Some NFL Teams draft out of “need” and some draft “Best Player Available” (BPA), or a little of both. Based on the San Diego Chargers current roster and salary cap situation & limitations, Chargers fans can pretty much guess correctly what San Diego will do with their first pick (#11 overall). They will draft out of NEED as San Diego has a glaring need at left tackle, which is the most likely choice with their first pick. Three left tackles are considered the top tier bunch: Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M), Eric Fisher (Central Michigan) and Lane Johnson (Oklahoma). San Diego needs one of them and one should be available with San Diego’s #11 overall pick.

However, the NFL Draft is extremely unpredictable. If all three top rated left tackle prospects are all drafted before San Diego’s pick, what position will San Diego draft in the first round? It is rare to see 3 offensive linemen to go in the top ten, but it could happen.

Offensive Guards Chance Warmack (Alabama) and Johnathan Cooper (North Carolina) are just as highly rated as the top three left tackle prospects, but guard is not an immediate need for San Diego, like left tackle is, nor is a guard a sexy pick at #11. First round guards are rare, as you can find quality guards in later rounds of the draft, but Warmack and Cooper are very special and are two of the highest rated guards coming out of college, ever. Any first rounder drafted to San Diego’s offensive line would help San Diego immensely, so any o-lineman should be the choice.

Again, the NFL Draft is very unpredictable. Many scenarios can happen with the first ten picks, before San Diego’s #11 selection. If no players that San Diego want with their pick, then the Chargers can trade-down. They could also trade up to secure one of the left tackles, but that could cost San Diego additional draft picks to give away in trade. San Diego can also stand pat and take what they can get, regardless of the position (which what they will probably do).

But since we are talking about unpredictability here, why don’t we talk about “TRADE DOWN” scenarios? If GM Tom Telesco wants to get more draft picks, or doesn’t like what he sees at #11, who could San Diego trade down with?

The first part of the 2013 NFL Draft is controlled by four teams, since these teams have multiple/extra draft picks in the first two rounds: 49ers, Vikings, Bengals & Rams

The San Francisco 49ers have 15 draft picks (including one in the first round and two in the second round). They have the most control of this draft, as they do not need 15 rookies on their 2013 team. So they have the ability to trade up (or down) and target the players they want. There’s no hiding that they do like Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia, but the 49ers first round pick is at #31 and Austin is projected to go well before that. Based on the “Jimmy Johnson Draft Pick Trade Value Chart” (a point value system, based on each NFL draft pick position), most trades should equal close to each other’s total. For example, if San Diego picks at #11 that draft pick is worth 1250 points, and whichever team would like to trade that draft pick, for their draft picks, the additional draft picks should sum should total 1250. So, if San Francisco wanted to trade up for San Diego’s first round draft pick (#11 overall), it would cost San Francisco three draft picks (#31, #34 & #96, based on the total points each draft pick is valued).

The Minnesota Vikings have a need at wide receiver too, and have also been enamored with Tevon Austin to replace recently traded Percy Harvin. If Minnesota wanted to trade up for San Diego’s first round draft pick (#11), it would cost them: #23, #25 & #101.

The Cincinnati Bengals also have a need for a playmaker wide receiver (as well as a right tackle). If Cincinnati wanted to trade up for San Diego’s first round draft pick, and swap second round draft picks (SD’s #11 & 45), it would cost them: #21, #37 & #54 (-10 points in SD’s favor). That’s two picks for three picks…

The St. Louis Ram also have a need for a wide receiver, and have been linked to Tevon Austin as well. If St. Louis wanted to trade up for San Diego’s first round draft picks (#11), it would cost them: #16, #80 & #112 (-10 in SD’s favor)

Acquiring additional draft picks in the NFL Draft is an art form. Good trade (downs) look like magic (on paper). The St. Louis Rams did a great job trading down in last years draft (same with the Chargers in 2004). But annual draft results cannot be measured for several years.

General Managers know their teams holes and can often target the guys they want, a round earlier than projected in drafts. Trading down can backfire, and trading out of the top half of the first round has even more odds against you (see Chargers 2003 draft trade down – S.Davis/T.Keil vs. T.Polamalu = moving down 14 spots for two draft picks). As much as any GM would like to move back 10 spots, and get an additional draft pick (within the top 64) picks seems great, but the odds are not in their favor. The number #11 draft pick is a prize and should not be gambled with. But big bets have big rewards…

If San Diego cannot land a top tier first round offensive lineman like (Joeckel, Fisher, Lane Johnson, Warmack or Cooper) then San Diego can go a numerous amount of directions. And we won’t find out until Thursday night, April 25th.

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  • boltingindiego

    If i had to rank them i would go Vikes, bengals, 49ers, than rams.

    • http://twitter.com/NativSanDiegan Paul Kokal

      Almost agree except don’t want to drop from 11 all the way to 31

  • http://boltbeat.com/ Ernie Padaon

    Hopefully Tavon Austin is wanted that much, but if we trade away our pick for him and he kills it, I will be pissed!!!

    • jamfed

      He’s a faster (and smaller Sproles). I like him and his speed is amazing, He plays like 5 positions… But I still like WR Cordarrelle Patterson better. Patterson has amazing juke ability that can work amazing angles to his favor with cut and start/stop ability. I’ve never seen a guy his size run the way he does. He’s a combination of Marcus Allan, Devin Hester and Isaac Bruce. BUT he needs polishing and route running coaching

      • http://boltbeat.com/ Ernie Padaon

        I was thinking the same on Patterson. Combination that usually is unseen, but his routes and sometimes has a case of the dropsies

        • jamfed

          Patterson’s “dropsies” is a misconception… from Rotoworld: “Tennessee WR Cordarrelle Patterson dropped just 4.2 percent of his intended targets in 2012. The drop rate compares favorably to Keenan Allen (4.7 percent), Terrance Williams (5.8 percent), and especially Vols teammate Justin Hunter (12.1 percent). Although draftniks have nitpicked Patterson’s tendency to “body catch” as opposed to secure passes with his hands, his efficiency wasn’t an issue in college. Patterson is expected to be drafted in the 11-27 range this April”

          • TheReturnOfMrBlanks

            Josh Cribbs 2.0, Why is he on top of every potential bust list? You seem to have a raging hard on for the guy (like Ernie with Tavon and me a couple weeks ago before Ansah moved too far up).

          • http://boltbeat.com/ Ernie Padaon

            and mine is RAGING right now

          • TheReturnOfMrBlanks

            lol Oh my, mine went soft after Ansah dropped into the top 10 then freakin top 5 WTH.

          • jamfed

            Raging? HA!!!! (snort) – maybe! All rookie WR’s need to work on their route running. Josh Cribbs went undrafted, and I think he was a QB in college. Cordarelle = Watch his (limited) tape! He’s amazing, looks to hit DB’s, runs though arm tackles, Special Teams player… can stop on a dime and change directions better than Austin. …no way will he be a bust. He’s a Momma’s boy too, and Momma keeps a short leash on him…LOL / As much as I LOVE Paterson, I say SD must pass on him… WR is NOT a need.

      • http://boltbeat.com/ Ernie Padaon

        Tavon has a solid 2 inches on Sproles… But Sproles has more muscle

        • TheReturnOfMrBlanks

          Awe man I have to do it Ernie “That’s what she said”

      • TheReturnOfMrBlanks

        Patterson might be the next Josh Cribbs and has the most bust potential, id take Austin over him all day.

        • jamfed

          Who, C.Patterson? … I don’t think so. That’s an ESPN answer. Watch his highlights and game tape. Patterson has rare running skills, comparitive to some of the best runners in NFL history (i.e. Marcus Allan). Paterson will be an amazing player. T.Austin is 172lbs. how many injuries does he project. I don’t know too many 172 lbs game changers. If anything Austin will bust…

          • TheReturnOfMrBlanks

            That’s 1 guys opinion, mine is the other way around. There’s no way to know so stating all sorts of facts isn’t going to prove anything.

      • Sergio Quintero

        I believe he’s seen more as cross between Percy Harvin/Wes Welker, the speed, return ability, running back ability of Harvin, the quickness and slot skills of Welker.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Edward-Moretti/100002785058214 Edward Moretti

    If either MIN or SF offered that to the Chargers I couldn’t see Telesco refusing that offer. However, If either Warmack or Cooper are available I would gladly take one of them no matter what the idiots who think where you draft a player matters. My “go to” guy on the draft is Greg Cosell and he is very sold on Armstead, Quisennberry, Long and even Pugh (short arms and all) as solid draft day 2 LT’s. I have enough confidence in Telesco to find what we need on all 3 days of the draft. We sure as hell shouldn’t be of the mindset that our draft will be ruined if the three premier LT’s are gone by 11.

    One side note: Although Cosell thinks Lane Johnson will be an elite LT he seems to be the only one around to mention that whoever drafts him will have to make him play hard for an entire game. He seems to take plays off.

    • jamfed

      Cosell is great. I’ll be working with the TV on, and I can hear his voice and I FREEZE! he’s like EF Hutton. Cosell loved Mouton too. AND I AGREE with you about the other left tackles. Long is a good 2nd round pick, I had Armstead in the 3rd round, but if SD doesn’t get one of the BIG THREE LT, then Telesco may be forced to overdraft in the 2nd. I like Pugh and Q-Berry too. There are a lot of GOOD players this year. This draft is VERY deep and the 2nd and 3rd round will produce some good GOOD players

      • http://boltbeat.com/ Ernie Padaon

        Draft is deep, which means we can take Cordarrelle or Tavon :)

      • TheReturnOfMrBlanks

        Armstead in the second baby, he’s not dropping to the third.

        • http://boltbeat.com/ Ernie Padaon

          If we want him, it will be in the 2nd

          • jamfed

            a month ago, Armstead and Watson were 3rd round prospects… HYPE HYPE HYPE… If SD doesn’t draft a LT in the first round (and they’ll get one of the three, Fisher I hope), they must draft one in the 2nd round (even if it’s a reach).

  • Rob Base

    In that situation I think the Rams would be the best team to trade down with. But I still think we should take Austin at 11 then trade back in 2nd rd to get more picks in rounds 3 and 4.

    • http://boltbeat.com/ Ernie Padaon

      You and I may be the only ones that want Austin… :)

      • TheReturnOfMrBlanks

        I had to stop watching that highlight video its like football crack. Lol

        • http://boltbeat.com/ Ernie Padaon

          I know right… So awesome

  • http://www.facebook.com/david.villarreal.545849 David Villarreal

    We trade SF our 1.11 & 5.12 total value 1286. We receive from SF
    1.31 (600), 2.2 (560), 3.31 (120), 7.21 (6.2) total value 1286.2

    We trade STL our 1.11 & 3.14 total value 1450. We receive from STL 1.16 (1000), 2.14 (440), 7.16 (8.2) total value 1448.6

    Or we trade STL our 1.11, 2.13, 4.13, 5.12, 6.11 total value 1835. We
    receive from STL 1.16 (1000), 1.22 (780), 5.16 (34), 6.16 (21) total
    value 1835

    We trade MIN our 1.11, 3.14, 5.12 total value 1486. We receive from MIN 1.23 (760), 1.25 (720), 7.23 (5.4) total value 1485.4.

    We trade CIN our 1.11, 4.13, 5.12 total value 1362. We receive from CIN 1.21 (800), and 2.5 (530), 5.23 (31) total value 1361.

    • http://www.facebook.com/davidwu619 David Wu

      I do like that second trade option with St. Louis but not sure if they will go for it since they will essentially give up an additional 1st rd pick to move up only 5 spots and get an extra 2nd and 4th rd pick. The SF trade will probably be my next fav option since we can get extra 2nd and 3rd round talent.

  • http://www.facebook.com/david.villarreal.545849 David Villarreal

    SF: We trade SF our 1.11 & 5.12 total value 1286. We receive from
    SF 1.31 (600), 2.2 (560), 3.31 (120), 7.21 (6.2) total value 1286.2

    STL: We trade STL our 1.11 & 3.14 total value 1450. We receive from
    STL 1.16 (1000), 2.14 (440), 7.16 (8.2) total value 1448.6

    Or we trade STL our 1.11, 2.13, 4.13, 5.12, 6.11 total value 1835. We
    receive from STL 1.16 (1000), 1.22 (780), 5.16 (34), 6.16 (21) total
    value 1835

    MIN: We trade MIN our 1.11, 3.14, 5.12 total value 1486. We receive
    from MIN 1.23 (760), 1.25 (720), 7.23 (5.4) total value 1485.4.

    CIN: We trade CIN our 1.11, 4.13, 5.12 total value 1362. We receive
    from CIN 1.21 (800), and 2.5 (530), 5.23 (31) total value 1361.

    • Enrico P.

      Well, u made a couple mistakes with the fifth round pick -> the pick is worth 33,5. So 1250 & 33,5 = 1283,5.

      And the MIN trade is completely wrong: 1.11=1250, 2.13=450, 5.12=33,5…makes 1733,5 pts. 1.23=760, 1.25=720, 7.23=1,2…makes 1481,2 pts

      But I think the Vikings are interested to trade up. They got two big needs: WR, DT, which they can address with 11th pick by selecting the best WR prospect and a DT at 25.

      • http://www.facebook.com/david.villarreal.545849 David Villarreal

        In the MIN one I did make a mistake it was suppose to our 1st, 3rd, and 5th. 3rd being worth 200. The values I used are from the walterfootball value chart. http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php , says our 5th is worth 36, the 17th pick in the 5th round is worth 33.5, and the Chargers don’t pick 17th in any round, and Vikings 7th is 5.4, not sure where you got 1.2?

  • TheReturnOfMrBlanks

    James do you read or post on any topics other then yours? Everyone on here is well versed on the LT’s and guards. I really don’t want to be rude but you could have shortened this up 3 or 4 paragraphs if you knew that we talk about these same guys over and over all day every day.

    • jamfed

      LOL – yes, my post had extra info on it. I base my audience based on my wife;s football IQ. She’s a Broncos fan, and she considers herself very football savvy. She’s not familiar with the “Draft Trade Value Chart” or the three top left tackle prospects, but she knows the 49ers are in San Francisco.and that Payton Manning will be throwing balls to Wes Welker… But she wouldn’t know that Manning went to Tennessee or Welker went to Texas Tech.

      • TheReturnOfMrBlanks

        Well that’s kinda how it reads brother, The trade scenario’s where a great read and I love the point system you used but I felt like I was reading a article that was written too people who know nothing about what is going on when in fact everyone on here knows it so well it comes off kinda “Preaching to the choir”

        • jamfed

          thanks man!!! you’re right… In the chargers forum, I rip it with all those guys, but I’m figuring it out here. I’ll take your advise…

  • tbell11

    People are saying that if Johnson isn’t available we should draft an OG, but we don’t really need a guard anymore. We signed Chad Rinehart via FA to be a starter and got Rich Ohrnberger for depth, but people forget that the Chargers drafted an OG last year in Johnnie Troutman. The years he started for Penn State, he never allowed a sack and that is impressive. He’s finally healthy and will get a chance to start because if he never got injured, he would’ve been a 2nd day selection. If all three tackles are gone by 11, then there should be a pass rusher that has fallen and we could take him. If Dion Jordan is available at 11, the pick should take about two seconds to make. If all three tackles are gone and pass rushers too then selecting S Kenny Vaccaro wouldn’t be a bad idea, but that is out there since Brandon Taylor should be given a chance to prove himself. Jarvis Jones can be a good selection at 11 because even though he didn’t test well at the combine and pro day he was considered the best player in this draft based on his game tape. The Chargers don’t really need a guard like everyone thinks and I know because I actually thought the same way.

    • Hank Drebin

      Alright..so you wanna tell me we don´t have needs at guard? You are aware that ALL “real” guards ended last season on
      Injured Reserve? And ALL of them were backups in last years (ok,
      Rinehart is a backup with starting experience – he started 17 games over
      last three years – wow!):
      - Johnnie Troutman: missed his entire rookie season due to injuries (pectoral muscle and knee issues)
      - Rich Ohrnberger: was on the field for only 18 games over the last three seasons (starting only four) – Injured Reserve!
      - Chad Rinehart: former backup for Levitre played only 7 games last year (starting only 2) – Injured Reserve!

      Don´t just say we don´t have needs at guard – EXPLAIN it dude! With that information above, you really think we´re not in need of at least 1 healthy reliable guard? Your reply will be interesting…

      • jamfed

        With with three NEW guards already on the Chargers, you want MORE guards? If there are three NEW additions, why would you want to use your first round draft pick on another guard?
        Rinehart is probably the better of the three new guards, can start at right guard for SD and looks more than capable in starting. Buffalo fans seem a little upset after losing him AND Levitre. And he has ties with the new O-LIne Coach, Joe D’.
        Ohnberger looks like a career backup, but was with O-Coordinator Whisenhun, so he has at least one recommendation. I really like the Johnnie Troutman experiment too. He looks very good on tape in 2011, and is a project thats time is due. I’d like to see him given the opprotunity to win a starting job. Drafted wounded in the 5th round, some people thought he could’ve been drafted in the 3 round.
        PLUS, this draft is very deep for o linemen. Using your 1st round draft pick, #11, is a very big commitment, considering there are three new hungry guards ready to earn a job.

  • Roy Francis

    I like the idea of trading back and getting more picks if the top 3 LT are gone but …I feel very strong about kenny vaccaro just because of his versatility I understand we have brandon taylor but bringing in vaccaro would be special he’s big and fast enough to guard tight ends and if brandon taylor comes back healthy and ready to play there can always use him in a strong nickel set with 3 safetys with him in the slot or have any one of them in the box with to over the top I think bringin him in the sky is the limit for our defense

  • http://twitter.com/BReisinger86 Brandon Reisinger

    Gotta admit with the depth at Oline this year that trading with SF sounds like a damn good option! drafting at the end of the 1st round where we could pick up a Fluker, Watson, Long, Pugh or Armstead. then 2 picks high in the 2nd rd. Grab a Warford then go for a Safety in the middle of the 2nd maybe Elam or something. We have so many holes to fill and it just seems like there is a lot of good talent that could be picked up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

    • TheReturnOfMrBlanks

      Almost sounds too good to be true, I would love for that to happen. 2 birds with 1 stone kinda thing

  • C.Steele

    Thanks James! Great article! Actually covered some new ground, with helpful insights, after weeks of reading a sightly different version of the same story. Keep up the good work.

    • jamfed

      Thank you!

  • http://twitter.com/NativSanDiegan Paul Kokal

    OK, 1st off I’m nativesandiegan but this won’t’ post right. I’m seeing this a few ways. At 1st, looking realistically & not just #’s, liked Minnesota-getting 2 picks in early 20′s & early 4th, giving only 11. We gain 2 extra picks (especially 25) in a deep draft. Only trade If there’s not someone available at 11 that we really love & won’t’ last until 23. If it looks like they’ll last to 16 but not 23, trade w/St Louis. Cincy similar to Minnesota & gain later 2 while moving up 8 w/our #2. We absolutely MUST be certain there’s not a great player at 11 that doesn’t have another player wth similar talent & intangibles available at 21, 23, or 16. Hard to predict but good GM’s can figure it out.
    My final thought: How often can you draft a franchise LT? There are no guarantees that we can next year or even 2015. Given Chargers dire LT situation, if 2 LT’s taken in 1st 4 picks I’d be VERY tempted to trade up. So many possibilities, it’s very exciting. Also, if 5 OL taken in 1st 10 picks then a great player has to fall to us at 11, right? Can’t’ wait for draft!!! nativesandiegan

  • http://www.facebook.com/pete.spinning Pete Spinning

    Is Shareece Wright our starting CB?

    Post-Draft interview. Can we get another one, Ernie? That would be sick!