It is a yearly tradition here at Bolt Beat. The 2022 season is officially over with the Kansas City Chiefs emerging as Super Bowl Champions and it is now time to rank Justin Herbert against his quarterback peers. Since this series' inception in 2020, the Chargers' quarterback has climbed quickly up the rankings.
Normally we rank the 32 starting quarterbacks in the league but with so many injuries and player movement, we decided to rank the 32 best quarterbacks, some of which being backups that were not qualified as "starters" in 2022.
Without further ado, let's jump into the rankings and see where Justin Herbert lands (spoiler alert: it is going to be a bit until you reach his place on the list).
32. Davis Mills, Houston Texans
- Preseason ranking: 21
Davis Mills actually put together some good numbers at the end of the 2021 season that had us believing that he would be a serviceable quarterback for the Houston Texans in 2022. That was not the case at all, as Mills ended up being arguably the worst starter in the league.
It got better towards the end of the year when the Texans started to stagger his snaps with Jeff Driskel but that is never a good sign.
31. Baker Mayfield, LA Rams
- Preseason ranking: 24
Baker Mayfield played for two teams in 2022 and Sean McVay was actually able to make the former first overall pick look quite decent once he joined the Rams later in the year.
However, Mayfield was statistically the worst quarterback in the entire sport while he was starting for the Panthers and the team was better when they turned to other options. It is not like Carolina is a well-oiled machine but that is a bad look for Baker.
30. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
- Preseason ranking: NR
Marcus Mariota was so awful for the Atlanta Falcons that the team eventually turned over the starting duties to Desmond Ridder. Ridder was as forgettable as it comes as a starter but still went 2-2 in the games that he started and did not throw an interception.
There were no "wow" plays for Ridder, both good and bad. It will be interesting to see if he is the future of the QB position for Atlanta.
29. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
- Preseason ranking: 28
Trey Lance had to play in a torrential downpour in Week 1 and then tore his ACL in Week 2. His career could turn into one of the biggest what-ifs in recent NFL history but for the time being, he has to at least make the list because of where he was drafted by the 49ers.
28. Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
- Preseason ranking: NR
Sam Darnold did not make the cut before the season as he was not even the starter for the Carolina Panthers, Mayfield was. However, Darnold certainly played better for Carolina once he was given the starting nod late in the season.
The team went 4-2 in the games that he started while he completed 58.6% of his passes with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Darnold posted the highest QBR of his career (albeit in a tiny sample size).
27. Gardner Minshew
- Preseason ranking: NR
Gardner Minshew was Jalen Hurts' backup in 2022 and he actually got a chance to play at the end of the season. Minshew showed some flashes of being a starting-caliber quarterback while also making some bonheaded mistakes, throwing three picks in 76 passing attempts.
All that being said, we have seen Minshew start and be serviceable in the past and I would take him as a one-year option over those listed below him.
26. Mac Jones, New England Patriots
- Preseason ranking: 22
This was not a great year for Mac Jones, so much to the point that his own fans wanted to see him replaced with Bailey Zappe on more than one occasion. To be fair to Jones, he had to pilot an offense with absolutely no direction following Josh McDaniels' departure but he still did not do himself any favors.
Jones' third season is perhaps the most important of his career as it will determine if he actually has a career as a starting quarterback in the NFL or not.
25. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
- Preseason ranking: NR
Kenny Pickett was not named the starting quarterback of the Pittsburgh Steelers until Week 5. Overall, the Steelers ended up going 7-6 while Pickett was the starter but it was not like he was exceptional in these games.
He showed some flashes that are going to excite Steelers fans for the future but his overall numbers still were not great. Seven touchdowns in 12 starts is not necessarily a great stat line.
24. Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints
- Preseason ranking: NR
It did not take the New Orleans Saints long to give up on the Jameis Winston experiment. Saints fans were actually high on Jameis and his ability to potentially turn it around in New Orleans and be the team's next starting quarterback.
Instead, he was benched and the team started Andy Dalton down the stretch. Dalton is a fine backup quarterback to have but the moment you have him as your starter it is probably an issue. Serviceable, but nothing special.
23. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
- Preseason ranking: NR
Everyone expected Jimmy Garoppolo to be moved in some capacity last offseason and it ultimately did not happen. That ended up being a good thing for the 49ers after Lance injured his knee in the second week.
Garoppolo was fine while he was the starter and turned in the typical Jimmy G performance. He did not last the entire season as he too was hurt, paving the way for arguably the best quarterback of the bunch.
22. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
- Preseason ranking: NR
Look, I know that Kyle Shanahan's offense is designed to make life easy on the quarterback and that Brock Purdy had the most weapons around him of anyone in the league. But he still took over this offense and led it to the NFC Championship Game and was only halted with a typical 49ers injury.
Purdy played better in this offense than Jimmy G ever did and that should be worth something. He does not crack the top 20, but he does edge out 10 other quarterbacks on this list.
21. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
- Preseason ranking: 23
Justin Fields is a highlight machine and I have no doubt that he may end up climbing this list the most next season. There is not a more dynamic quarterback running the football than Fields and that is including Lamar Jackson.
That being said, you have to be able to throw the ball in the NFL and Fields still struggles in that respect. As he becomes a better passer in the NFL, the sky is the limit for his potential.
20. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
- Preseason ranking: NR
Deshaun Watson certainly has the talent to be a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, he just did not show that in 2022. Watson went almost two years without playing in an NFL game and it definitely showed as he was not the same quarterback that he was before.
He too should climb this list next season once he has a full offseason behind him and the experience from this year. However, it is impossible to rank him any higher at this point in time.
19. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Preseason ranking: 9
A lot of Broncos fans called us crazy for ranking Russell Wilson ninth in our preseason rankings. To them, we were just bitter Chargers fans who were upset to see Wilson in the AFC West. In reality, we were ahead of the curve and might have ranked him too high.
Maybe Sean Payton will be able to help Wilson turn around his career trajectory or maybe he will be the dagger to Wilson's career. If Payton cannot save him then his days as a good NFL quarterback are over.
18. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Preseason ranking: 31
Daniel Jones had much better coaching around him than Russell Wilson last season but he also did not have nearly the amount of offensive talent that Wilson had. Despite that, Jones had a far more productive year in helping his team win football games.
The ugly side of Jones still came out in the playoffs against the Eagles but for the first time in his career, there was actually some promise there in his play. I doubt he will ever be a truly great quarterback but he definitely can be good.
17. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
- Preseason ranking: 10
Kyler Murray is another quarterback that desperately needs to turn it around in 2023. Unlike Wilson, Murray has age on his side and if the Cardinals make the right hire then we could see Murray catapult back into being a top-10 QB.
However, Murray did tear his ACL late in the season against the New England Patriots. This could delay his return back to action and may fundamentally change who he is as a QB.
16. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
- Preseason ranking: 15
It was more of the same for Ryan Tannehill in 2022. There were times in which he could pilot this Titans team as a serviceable quarterback and then there were other times in which the ugly side of his game showed up.
The Titans' season ended when Tannehill hurt his ankle, showing his importance to the team as its signal-caller. He might not be great, but he can win games if everything around him is working.
15. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
- Preseason ranking: 13
Like Tannehill, things were more of the same for Kirk Cousins in 2022. He was good enough to win games for the Vikings but never looked like he was a top-10 quarterback in the NFL.
You know exactly what you are going to get with Cousins. He will not derail a season at quarterback, making him better than half of the league. However, he probably is never going to win a Super Bowl, making him worse than almost half of the league.
14. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
- Preseason ranking: 25
I am buying Jared Goff stock this offseason. Goff got so overrated while he was with the La Rams that he kind of became underrated. Goff was regarded as one of the worst starters in the league when that simply is not true. He showed that during the 2022 season.
Yes, he had a lot of talent around him as well as one of the best OCs in the business but Goff still went out and produced. You do not complete 65.1% of your passes and throw 29 touchdowns with only seven interceptions by accident. He might just be a younger version of Cousins but that is still better than what people thought he was a year ago.
13. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
- Preseason ranking: 12
Derek Carr is decidedly not with the Las Vegas Raiders anymore as he is essentially forcing the team to release him instead of trade him this offseason. This is a good thing for Chargers fans, as the team is not going to find anyone better than Carr at quarterback next season.
This was a down season for Carr but at his best, he is still someone who can win football games. At his worst, he is in the camp with Tannehill but when he is at his best he is arguably a better quarterback than Dak Prescott, who is yet to come on this list.
12. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
- Preseason ranking: 32
Lok, we were all wrong about Geno Smith. I went as far as to rank him as the worst starting quarterback in the NFL before the 2022 season. that is the entire reason why he won Comeback Player of the Year.
Smith wasn't just a better quarterback than Wilson was last season, he was legitimately good. He led the league in completion percentage and when he was firing on all cylinders was a legitimately dangerous QB. He may not have the consistency of the top guys but he is far better than anyone expected.
11. Matthew Stafford, LA Rams
- Preseason ranking: 7
Matthew Stafford was hit with the injury bug this season and it could be the start of his downslide as an NFL quarterback. We have seen it with other guys and there is a chance that he is not even on this list next year.
However, we did not get enough of a sample size to rank him any lower than 11th. He may even climb this ranking if he returns to form with health on his side next year.
10. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
- Preseason ranking: 20
Tua may have had a lot of help in having a great offensive-minded head coach and two of the most dangerous receivers in the entire league. But at the end of the day, he still played well enough to be a top-10 quarterback (also because the top of the quarterback rankings is not as good as it once was).
There is a big gap between this portion of the list and those in the upper echelon but that does not change the fact that Tua deserves the 10th spot. Hopefully, the concussions he suffered in 2022 do not have a long-lasting impact on his health and he can return to action.
9. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
- Preseason ranking: 11
Dak Prescott did not do all that much differently in 2022 to justify him climbing this list, he simply moved up two spots as people ahead of him fell out of the top 10. In fact, you could argue that Prescott should have fallen with all the interceptions he threw in 2022. While that hurts, I would not put anyone that is below him above him on this list.
It will be interesting to see how Prescott does in 2023 now that his old offensive coordinator is with the LA Chargers. Justin Herbert is definitely better than Prescott, so Kellen Moore will be able to do even more offensively.
8. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Preseason ranking: 18
There were times in which Trevor Lawrence looked like a truly elite quarterback in the league and was proving why he was the first-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. It was not consistent for Lawrence all the time but the elite potential was obviously there.
The gap between Lawrence at eight and Prescott at nine is big. Prescott is the best of the good quarterbacks, whereas Lawrence is the first of the great quarterbacks. Not elite, but great. I would argue that eight through five fall into this category.
7. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
- Preseason ranking: 8
Lamar Jackson squeezes into a very similar ranking after a strange year. Jackson was his usual self when he was playing for the Ravens but like the year before, could not stay on the field when the team needed him most.
With concerns around Jackson's ability to put together a 20-game run as well as the capped offensive ceiling of his style of play, it is hard to rank him as an elite quarterback. Instead, he falls into the great category.
6. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
- Preseason ranking: 1
Look, he won back-to-back MVPs, he had to be listed as no. 1 before the 2022 season. Aaron Rodgers took a step back in 2022, though, and may have gone from the elite crop of quarterbacks to simply being a great one (which is still good enough to win the Super Bowl).
There is no guarantee that Rodgers even plays in 2023 so his place on this list might not even matter (much like how Tom Brady was on the early versions of this list until he retired). For now, though, he checks in at no. 6.
5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
- Preseason ranking: 17
Eagles fans would likely argue that Jalen Hurts is in the elite category of quarterbacks after he led the Philadelphia Eagles to the Super Bowl but I would refrain from putting him in that select group. Hurts is great and is absolutely knocking on that door of being elite but he needs one more year like 2022 to get into that category.
Still, there is nothing wrong with being the fifth-ranked quarterback in the league, especially when you were originally drafted to be Carson Wentz's backup (with everyone bashing the selection when it was first made).
4. Justin Herbert, LA Chargers
- Preseason ranking: 4
Justin Herbert checks in at the same spot as he did before the year. Two of the three quarterbacks ranked ahead of him are the smae on this list as the LA Chargers quarterback didn't do enough to climb into the top three.
Don't get me wrong, the Chargers still have an elite quarterback on their hands and the fourth through second spot on this list is pretty fluid. They could completely be jumbled after next season depending on what happens.
For now, though, Herbert checks in at no. 4 after having a down year (statistically) in which he carried the Chargers to the playoffs with multiple injuries.
3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
- Preseason ranking: 3
Josh Allen still has the ceiling of being the best quarterback in the league as he genuinely can do things with his athleticism and arm strength that no other quarterback in the league can do. That being said, some of the old mistakes crept back into Allen's game as he took a step back with Brian Daboll out of town.
2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
- Preseason ranking: 6
Two things can be true at the same time. Joe Burrow might be getting the most help in the league with his insane receiving corps and the fact that he has a great defense as well. But he also is still putting up great numbers, is winning playoff games and deserves to be ranked no. 2 after the 2022 season.
If you flipped Burrow and Rodgers and put Burrow on last year's Green Bay team then he probably is not as good (and Rodgers is probably still in the top three himself). But we have to rank these quarterbacks based on reality, not a what-if, and that is what gives Burrow the no. 2 spot. There is a very short list of quarterbacks who go to the Super Bowl and Conference Championship in back-to-back years.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
- Preseason ranking: 2
Patrick Mahomes is simply on a planet of his own (which is unfortunate for Chargers fans). The fourth through second-ranked quarterbacks on this list are truly elite, while Mahomes is on his own tier as the one of one.
Mahomes just won his second MVP, Super Bowl, and Super Bowl MVP in only his fifth season as a starter. If it was not for Tom Brady's legendary career, we would already be discussing if Mahomes was on his way to the best career of all time (and he still might be).