The LA Chargers are currently the seventh seed in the AFC playoff picture heading into Week 13. However, the Chargers have won just two games in their last six and in a crowded AFC playoff picture, they could easily fall out of playoff contention.
These last six weeks are crucial for the LA Chargers. Losing in Week 12 probably killed their chances of winning the division, but the Bolts absolutely can still make the playoffs. They are talented enough to make the playoffs and if the same team shows up in the final six weeks that showed up in the final five weeks then they will make it.
This playoff picture is wild and unless the Chargers win out then they are going to have to get help in some way, shape, or form. They can be anywhere from the seventh seed in the AFC and as high as the second seed (the top seed is likely out of reach). It is going to be a crazy last six weeks.
There are 12 teams in the AFC playoff picture that the LA Chargers should keep tabs on.
Three-fourths of the conference can make the playoffs and most of those teams could be as high as the no. 1 seed and as low as the seventh seed. It is a lot to monitor, but LA Chargers fans should be keeping tabs on each team to understand the Chargers' playoff chances.
As we head into the final third of the season, we decided to predict the final record of all 12 teams to create a concrete AFC playoff prediction (with the help of ESPN's NFL Playoff Machine). For what it's worth, I am predicting that the Chargers go 9-8 this season, losing to the Bengals, Chiefs and Raiders and beating the Giants, Texans and Broncos.
We broke the 12 teams down into three categories: the current division leaders, the four teams that currently have records above .500 and the four .500 or worse teams.
Let's get into the current division winners.
Predicting the final record of the current AFC division leaders:
Note: The order of the teams is based on current playoff standings, not the final projected standings, which we will cover at the end.
1. Baltimore Ravens:
The Baltimore Ravens are currently the top seed in the AFC but have escaped some ugly wins that they probably should not have won. The Chiefs beat themselves early in the season to give Baltimore the win, it took a record-setting field goal to beat the Lions, they barely beat the Colts in overtime and they beat the Browns despite throwing four interceptions in Week 12.
The Ravens are 4-0 in those games when they should have lost at least one, if not two. The 8-3 Ravens could easily be 7-4 or even 6-5. The Ravens have a really tough schedule to end the season with two Steelers games, the Browns, Bengals, Packers and Rams. I have them going 3-3 in those final six, finishing with an 11-6 record.
2. New England Patriots
The New England Patriots are the hottest team in the league right now, winning six in a row to insert themselves as the second seed in the AFC. The Patriots have had some good wins in that span (such as the Chargers, Browns and Titans) but they have had some easy wins as well (Jets, Panthers and Falcons).
The Pats have both games against the Bills remaining as well as a tough game against the Indianapolis Colts in Indy. I have the Patriots losing one of the two Bills games as well as the Colts game, finishing with an 11-6 record.
3. Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans just are not the same without Derrick Henry. They dropped a really ugly game against the Houston Texans and then were blown out by the Patriots in Week 12. While they beat the Rams without Henry, the Rams also started their downhill spiral in that game and it Titans won because of two pick-sixes, not because of the offense.
The Titans' remaining schedule has a mixture of tough games and easy games. The Jaguars should be an automatic win and there is no way that the Titans lose to the Texans again. However, they also have three games that could legitimately go either way against the Steelers, 49ers and Dolphins. With how they have played recently, I have them going 3-2 and finishing with an 11-6 record (again!?).
4. Kansas City Chiefs
Everyone was wondering what was wrong with the Kansas City Chiefs and they have since won four in a row and probably have not gotten the recognition they deserve. While they still haven't been as good offensively, they have been able to win games at whatever cost necessary.
Before Week 12 I liked the Chargers' chances to beat the Chiefs at SoFi Stadium. With how volatile the Chargers have been, the Chiefs are the pick there. The remaining schedule for the Chiefs is pretty easy with two games against Denver, a game against Las Vegas, a game against Cincinnati and a game against the Steelers.
The Chiefs turn it on, and quite frankly, I don't see them losing another game this season and have them finishing 13-4.
Predicting the final record of the AFC teams with a .500+ record:
5. Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals are right there with the LA Chargers as one of the most volatile offensive teams in the league. That being said, while they do not have a good defense, they do not have the same massive holes that the Chargers have in the run defense and in Tevaughn Campbell.
The 7-4 Bengals have some tough games that will test them. After the Chargers they have the 49ers, Broncos, Ravens, Chiefs and Browns. I have them beating the Chargers, Broncos and Browns and finishing with a 10-7 record.
6. Buffalo Bills:
The Bills have been a weird team to watch this season but they still have a 7-4 record with a big win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Buffalo's defense has also played extremely well, however, they haven't played the best teams and Tre'Davious White is out for the rest of the year.
I have the Bills splitting with the Patriots and losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They will be able to take care of the Panthers, Jets and Falcons. The Bills, too, will finish with an 11-6 record.
7. Denver Broncos
While the Denver Broncos beat the LA Chargers in Week 12 I am still not sold on their prospects of being a playoff team. They will lose both games to the Chiefs and lose to both the Raiders and the Chargers to finish with a 2-6 divisional record, which seems fair given their status.
Their only remaining win on the schedule will be against the winless Detroit Lions, giving the Broncos a 7-10 record at the end of the season.
8. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are a very similar team to the LA Chargers, as much as that might hurt a Chargers fan to admit. The Raiders have had games where they are thoroughly outplayed and look awful and then they have had games where they beat really good teams and look awesome. Both the Raiders and Chargers have a negative point differential as well.
I have Vegas beating the Broncos to sweep them and beating the Bolts to split with them. They will lose to the Chiefs, Browns (in Cleveland) and Colts while beating the Washington Football Team to finish with a 9-8 record.
Predicting the final record of the AFC teams in the hunt with a record of .500 or worse
9. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are easily the best team of this group of teams as their arrow is pointing in the right direction. The Colts have had multiple really tough losses and quite frankly, are probably just as good as the Ravens but have not won those close outcomes.
At the end of the day, though, the team can only go so far with Carson Wentz. His overall numbers have been better but he still makes mistakes in big moments that hurts the Colts. That is why the Ravens are where they are and the Colts are where they are.
That being said, Jonathan Taylor is the hottest player in the league right now and the Colts are a nightmare matchup for any team in the AFC. The Texans and Jaguars are two easy wins and I have Indy beating both the Pats and Raiders as the home team. They'll lose to Arizona and finish with a 10-7 record.
10. Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns have to be one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season. Now, Browns fans are going to have to hear months of discourse about what the team does with Baker Mayfield. He is good enough to win with everything working around him but is not someone who is going to elevate the team, which is how he is going to want to be paid.
The schedule is pretty tough to end the season with the only projected wins being against the Raiders and Steelers. That would give them an 8-9 record.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a well-coached football team that will hang around with any team in the league. That being said, Ben Roethlisberger is not a good quarterback anymore and the already bad offensive line is falling apart right in front of him.
The worst team left on Pittsburgh's schedule is either Minnesota or Cleveland, both of which are competitive teams in the hunt. They'll shock the Titans in Pittsburgh and split with the Ravens to finish 7-9-1 on the season.
12. Miami Dolphins
After winning four in a row we have to consider the 5-7 Miami Dolphins in this article, simply because their next three games are cakewalks and will put them right back into the playoff picture. The Dolphins have the Giants, Jets and the Saints as their next three opponents and we have the Dolphins winning all three, which puts them at 8-7.
However, things then get tougher for the Dolphins who have a road game against the Titans and a season-ending game against the Patriots. The Dolphins will do enough to get back into the playoff picture and still manage to finish with a losing record at 8-9.
Let's jump into the final AFC playoff seeding
The final AFC playoff picture:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
2. Tennessee Titans (11-6)
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
4. Buffalo Bills (11-6)
5. New England Patriots (11-6)
6. Indianapolis Colts (10-7)
7. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
8. Las Vegas Raiders (9-8)
9. LA Chargers (9-8)
The rest of the conference ends up with losing records and these are the nine teams that we are projecting to finish above .500 and enter Week 18 with a chance to make the playoffs. As you probably noticed, we have the LA Chargers finishing as the ninth seed in the conference.
The interesting thing about the Chargers is that they play the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 18 to end the season. As mentioned at the beginning of the article, we are expecting the Chargers to split with the Raiders and thus lose the Week 18 game. The Raiders will be 8-9 and will mostly be looking to play spoiler and will probably succeed knowing how the Chargers let us down.
However, flipping that game does not even change the playoff picture at all. Based on the outcomes that have already happened and the outcomes that we are predicting, the Chargers would miss out on tiebreakers in favor of the Colts and the Bengals.
This shows that a 4-2 record to finish the season for the Bolts does not guarantee anything. In reality, the Chargers' Week 13 game against the Bengals is going to have massive playoff implications. The result will essentially swing the conference record by two games for the winning party and there is a good chance that these teams finish with the same record.
MUST-READ: Chargers who deserve the most blame for the Week 12 loss
To put it into perspective, if the Chargers manage to beat the Bengals and Raiders, only losing to the Chiefs in the last six games, then they will be the sixth seed and take on the Baltimore Ravens in the first round. If they beat the Bengals they can still lose to the Raiders (based on my predictions) and finish as the seventh seed to take on the Tennessee Titans.