The Jacksonville Jaguars defeated the Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South on Saturday night and secure the fourth seed in the AFC playoff picture. Heading into Sunday's action, the LA Chargers are the fifth seed and on a collision course for a Week 3 rematch.
While the Jags beat the Bolts earlier in the season, the Chargers are better off securing the fifth seed as they would avoid playing the Cincinnati Bengals in the first round of the playoffs. A Baltimore loss or Chargers win can get the job done.
Jacksonville may have had the Chargers' number early this season but these are two completely different teams than they were in September with completely different circumstances. As far as we are concerned, there are two massive pros (and well as a con) to playing the Jaguars instead of the Titans in round one.
2 pros and 1 con of the Chargers playing the Jaguars:
Pro: The Jaguars have a worse interior defensive line than the Titans
Even though the LA Chargers got the win over the Titans in Week 15, it was an ugly game in which the offense could not get going. The really good interior pass rush of the Titans was getting home against the Chargers' offensive line, limiting Justin Herbert and stopping the run game in the process.
In terms of overall numbers, the Jaguars and Titans are pretty similar when it comes to their pass rush. According to Pro Football Focus, the Titans finished with 317 quarterback pressures while the Jaguars finished with 310. Pretty much identical. However, the Jaguars' pressure comes off the edge, not in the interior.
While the Bolts definitely cannot sleep on the outside pressure the Jaguars can produce, it is more manageable for the team to operate its offense with said pressure than if they are getting mauled in the middle. Justin Herbert has some of the best pocket presence in the league and is particularly great in stepping up to miss outside pressure. If Rashawn Slater returns, the Chargers will also have a huge boost at left tackle.
This also means the Chargers can have an easier time running the ball, which is huge for the offense. Jacksonville has around a league-average run defense and if the team can get Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley going early it will make a huge difference.
Con: Trevor Lawrence is someone who can win a playoff game by himself
Tennessee was probably the more palatable matchup for Chargers fans just because the Bolts just beat them and the Titans' offense is far from explosive. Derrick Henry is not the same one-man wrecking crew that he once was as the other holes on the offense are too big to overcome.
That is not the case with the Jaguars at all. While it has not always looked pretty for Jacksonville, they have a quarterback who is knocking on the door of elite in Trevor Lawrence that has put together some truly great performances.
Lawrence has not had the red-hot start to his career that many expected but he was still called the biggest can't-miss prospect in the sport 24 months ago. Doug Pederson is starting to unlock Lawrence's incredible potential and it has shined at points late in the season.
Lawrence's last three games have not been particularly great but just look back at his Week 14 and 15 performances against two good teams in the Titans and Dallas Cowboys. He threw for 686 combined yards with seven touchdowns and one interception.
Lawrence is not to the point where he can turn in three of those games in a row to lead the Jaguars to the Super Bowl, but he absolutely is capable of turning in one of those games in the first round of the playoffs to single-handedly lead the Jaguars into the AFC Divisional Round.
With a good run game to back Lawrence up, the Chargers would have a bit more defensive game planning if they play the Jaguars than they would have if the Titans would have won on Saturday.
Pro: Chargers don't have an experience disadvantage
Perhaps the best thing that the Tennessee Titans had going for them was their experience. This was something that was meant to give the team an advantage over the Jaguars in Week 18 and for the most part, it looked like it was.
The Titans were winning most of the Week 18 game and looked to be in control of the contest. All they had to do was not get in their own way or let Trevor Lawrence go on a superhuman drive late to win Jacksonville the game.
Tennessee ended up getting in its own way. Former Charger Rayshawn Jenkins made a great play, sacking Joshua Dobbs and forcing the fumble in the process. Josh Allen scooped and scored and sent the Jaguars to the playoffs as a result.
That same experience that the Titans had for most of its roster is not there in Jacksonville. Sure, Pederson has been there before and Lawrence has played in some huge games in college, but the collective Jaguars team has not had much playoff experience and none as a unit.
That is mostly true with the Chargers as well. Against a Tennessee team, there was a world in which the Titans were simply more ready out of the gate, used their experience to their advantage, and jumped out to an early lead over the Chargers that they did not relinquish.
While that can still happen against the Jaguars, Jacksonville is going to be in the same boat as the Chargers to start the game. For many on both sides of the ball, this will be the biggest game they have played so far in their career.
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If there is one team you want to play your first playoff game against it is a team that also has no playoff experience. Look how it panned out for the Cincinnati Bengals last year when they played the Las Vegas Raiders.