The LA Chargers went into their Sunday Night Football matchup against the Miami Dolphins as home underdogs. It looked like a nightmare matchup for the Chargers, who were missing key players on defense against the most explosive offense in the league.
That did not stop the Chargers from turning in the best defensive showing of the season. It was the biggest statement win of the year for the Bolts, who dominated in every area of the game against Miami. And to make things even sweeter, Justin Herbert put a ridiculous debate to bed with his insane play.
At the time of writing this, the Chargers are the seventh seed in the AFC (Patriots can usurp the Chargers with a win on Monday Night Football). While there is plenty of football left to play, the Chargers are now in a great spot to make the playoffs for the first time since 2018.
3 reasons why the Chargers will make the playoffs:
1. The remaining schedule is fairly easy
A lot can happen in these final four weeks and it is impossible to predict every single outcome that is going to impact the playoff picture. That being said, if the Chargers can get to 10 wins this season then it is pretty safe to say that they are going to be a playoff team.
In fact, without factoring in any other outcome, the Chargers have a 95% chance of making the playoffs if they finish with 10 wins (per The New York Times NFL Playoff Simulator). After beating the Dolphins, the Chargers have to finish 3-1 to reach 10 wins.
There obviously is still a lot of work to be done as a 3-1 finish is not the easiest thing in the world. That being said, the final four games are not very difficult and three wins should be doable if the Chargers are playoff caliber.
The Bolts host the Tennessee Titans, are on the road against the Indianapolis Colts, host the LA Rams and are on the road against the Denver Broncos. Heading into Week 14, those teams ranked 16th, 31st, 27th and 25th in DVOA, respectively. Granted, the Chargers rank 26th, but the Bolts still finish the season against four teams that are in the lower half of the league.
2. The competition for the playoff spot have much tougher schedules
The reason why 10 wins will likely get the Chargers in is because the other teams in the AFC playoff picture have much tougher schedules to finish out the season. The two teams that are competing for the final playoff spot in the AFC are the New England Patriots and New York Jets.
The Patriots have a 6-6 record heading into their Monday Night Football matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. After losing to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, the New York Jets have fallen to 7-6. They currently have a worse AFC record than the Chargers, giving the Bolts the tiebreaker over them.
New York's final four games are against the Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks and Miami Dolphins. That might not seem like the toughest stretch of games but all of those games are losable for a Jets team that has scored 34 combined points the last two weeks. Their final four opponents ranked 13th, 24th, 10th and eighth in DVOA respectively heading into Week 14.
If the Jets and Chargers both finish 10-7, even if the Chargers lose to an AFC team and the Jets lose to an NFC team, the Chargers will get the tiebreaker and get into the playoffs. New York needs to win out or have the Chargers fail to reach 10 wins.
The Patriots currently have the tiebreaker over the Chargers but have a much tougher schedule. After playing Arizona in Week 14, the Patriots have to play the Raiders, Bengals, Dolphins and Bills. It is hard to fins a path to 10 wins for New England with that final stretch.
But let's say the Patriots do get to 10 wins. The Dolphins would be the no. 1 candidate for them to beat in those final three weeks. If that happens, there is a world in which Miami only finishes with 10 wins and loses out to the Chargers because of this key tiebreaker.
3. The Chargers are getting reinforcements
We have not seen the Chargers at full strength since Week 2 and even then the team was without Keenan Allen. In that first half against the Kansas City Chiefs, though, the Chargers looked like they were legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
We finally saw a version of this offense that we have not seen since last season in Week 14 with Mike Williams and Allen back in the lineup. The team overcame some pretty shoddy play-calling from Joe Lombardi to do enough to get the victory.
The offensive side of the ball is getting more reinforcements as well. Barring a setback, Donald Parham will return in Week 15 against the Tennessee Titans, which is a huge boost to both the passing and running game. Trey Pipkins should return soon as well, giving the Bolts four of their five starting offensive linemen back.
Defensively, massive news broke on Sunday that Joey Bosa could be close to returning. Assuming Derwin James' injury is not serious, the Chargers could potentially be getting both Bosa and James on the field together for the first time since Week 3. That is huge.
Oh, and Rashawn Slater could potentially return this season. Like that isn't a massive deal.
Sure, the Chargers team that we have watched all season might not be able to finish 3-1 and reach the playoffs. But the Chargers team we could see in these final four games might end up being completely different from the first 13 games.
A full-strength Chargers team is a team that nobody wants to see in the first round of the playoffs and the win over Miami might just be the launching off point to get them there.