Perhaps the biggest conversation around the LA Chargers this offseason is the team's salary-cap situation and the possibility of cutting Keenan Allen. Per Over the Cap, the Chargers are currently $20.2 million over the salary cap and will need to free up another $3.1 million in cap space for the incoming draft class.
Allen has thus become one of the prime candidates to potentially be cut this offseason. Cutting Allen with a pre-June 1 designation would free up $14.8 million in cap space. Cutting him with a post-June 1 designation would free up $17.5 million in cap space.
With Allen on the wrong side of 30, and coming off of a season in which he only played 515 snaps because of a hamstring injury, many fans have accepted that Allen will be cut. The Athletic's Daniel Popper named Allen as the most likely cap casualty for the Chargers this offseason.
While some may view this as writing on the wall for Allen's eventual departure, there are more compelling reasons for Allen to stick around in Los Angeles at least for one more season.
3 reasons why the Chargers won't cut Keenan Allen this offseason:
1. Justin Herbert (and Tom Telesco) love Keenan Allen
The Chargers went all-in on building around Justin Herbert last offseason. Now that the bill is due, the idea that the team would cut Allen, who is arguably Herbert's most reliable target, doesn't make a lot of sense.
Herbert is the most important person in this entire franchise and it is undeniable that he and Allen have a great relationship with great chemistry. If Herbert wants Allen to stay then he is going to stay and the Bolts are going to have to figure out the rest via other means.
Herbert is not the only one that is a fan of Keenan Allen. Tom Telesco was asked about the possibility of moving on from Allen in his post-season press conference and he swiftly made it clear that there was no interest in going down that path.
Tom Telesco on the possibility of moving on from Keenan Allen this offseason for cap reasons:
— Bolt Beat (@BB_Chargers) January 19, 2023
"It's not tempting to me. I mean, good players make money and I'd rather have a lot of good players on our roster than a lot of cap space."
Some would argue that this is a smoke screen but Telesco publicly coming out in support of Allen, with this kind of quote, shows that fans and the media may not be on the same page as the organization itself when it comes to Allen's value.
We can talk about his age or the fact that he missed time with a hamstring injury all we want. Allen still produced at an elite level — arguably the highest of his career — when he was healthy. Justin Herbert and Tom Telesco know that.
2. The Chargers can free up money by other means
The LA Chargers are going to have to free up a decent chunk of cash this offseason in order to accomplish what the team wants to accomplish. While this may seem like an impossible feat now, the team certainly has the means to free up enough cap space without cutting Allen.
The Chargers' best friend right now is cutting other players and restructuring other contracts. By doing this, the Bolts can create not only the necessary cap space to pay its draft class, but to pay 2-3 lesser free agents as well.
As far as cuts go, the Chargers can cut Matt Feiler and Dustin Hopkins (with a post-June 1 designation for Hopkins) to free up $8.78 million in cap space. Both of these cuts are relatively straightforward and almost certainly will happen with the position the team is in.
As far as restructures go, there are three players who jump off the page: Sebastian Joseph-Day, Joey Bosa and Corey Linsley. All three players have very friendly situations at the back end of their contracts and are surefire bets to play at a high level for the rest of their contracts.
The Chargers would free up $24.1 million by restructuring these players, bringing the total savings up to just under $32.9 million. If the Chargers really need to free up more space, they could cut Gerald Everett to free up $4.25 million or could try and trade him for late-round draft capital to free up $5.75 million.
By just doing the cuts and restructures, the Chargers would have approximately $9.5 million to spend after paying the draft class. That could be enough to re-sign Drue Tranquill and Trey Pipkins. An Everett cut would grow that number to approximately $13.75 million with a trade growing that number to $15.25 million.
3. The Chargers offense isn't built to cut Keenan Allen
Justin Herbert and Tom Telesco aren't just fans of Keenan Allen. Both the quarterback and the general manager likely realize that this offense is not built to cut Keenan Allen this offseason. By doing so, the offense could take a huge step back.
Let's look at the receiver room if the Chargers decide to cut Allen this offseason. It would be led by Mike Williams, who is more unreliable than Allen at this point, and Joshua Palmer, who has had moments of brilliance but isn't a great no. 2 option for an NFL offense.
The Chargers would pigeonhole themselves into taking a wide receiver in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. In reality, the Chargers probably need to take a receiver in the first two rounds this year anyway, but expecting big contributions from a rookie is a dangerous game.
Sure, there are guys like Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson who are instant contributors. But then there are guys like Jahan Dotson, Jalen Reagor, Jerry Jeudy, or Kadarius Toney who either take time to contribute consistently or are outright misses in the first round.
The Chargers are far from guaranteed to replace Allen with a first-round rookie receiver in 2023. It would be far better to draft a receiver early with Allen still in town so the team can have a deeper receiver room and actually get an idea of if this receiver can replace Allen in 2024 and beyond.
It is very fitting that the Chargers hired Kellen Moore to be the offensive coordinator as he witnessed this all play out in Dallas. The team had to part ways with Amari Cooper via trade for perceived financial reasons and the result was a less dynamic receiving corps that simply was not as good in 2022.
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Most Cowboys fans would take that Cooper trade back if they could jump in a Delorian and rewrite history. If the Chargers move on from Allen, many fans would likely feel the same way a year from today.