Aaron Rodgers is coming off of a fantastic season in which he was one win away from the Super Bowl and was the league’s MVP. Justin Herbert is also coming off of a great season in which he had the most impressive rookie season in NFL history.
The Green Bay Packers are in a much better situation to contend than the LA Chargers but the one thing that is similar about the two teams is that they have great quarterbacks. While Herbert still has not broken through into that elite category, he is knocking on the door.
In 2021, he will burst through the door and start playing better than some of the quarterbacks that are already in that group — including Aaron Rodgers.
Justin Herbert will be better than the reigning MVP, Aaron Rodgers, in 2021.
This is not to single out Rodgers in particular, the only reason why we are comparing him to Herbert is the fact that he won the MVP last season. And while we can be as optimistic as we want, Herbert is not going to be better than Mahomes, who probably would have won the award if he played in Week 17.
This is one of those takes that I know is going to get a lot of hate thrown my way and I respect every Packers fan who Tweets me and sends me emails. Trust me, you won’t be alone.
While it seems crazy now, when we circle back at the end of the season we will be scratching our heads wondering how Justin Herbert had a better year than Aaron Rodgers and if it came out of nowhere.
Well, it would not have come out of the complete abyss, as I am warning you here today in May. Let’s break down the two main reasons why Justin Herbert is going to be better than Aaron Rodgers as he takes his two-year leap in 2021.
1. Justin Herbert’s supporting cast on the LA Chargers will be on par with Aaron Rodgers
The biggest difference between these two teams last season, at least offensively, was not the quarterback position. While Rodgers was obviously better, the bigger difference was the offensive line play as the Packers had one of the best in the league while the Chargers had one of the worst.
That will change in 2021. While the Packers are still going to have a good offensive line, they did lose their leader in Corey Linsley, who was the best center in the league last season. Where did they lose him to? The LA Chargers.
I still would bet that the Packers offensive line is better in 2021 but the difference is not nearly going to be as big as it was last year and Herbert is going to get the same luxuries that Rodgers gets in Green Bay. The bigger difference is the weapons between the two teams.
Keenan Allen and Davante Adams are very similar as they are both overlooked and are neck-and-neck on the NFL wide receiver totem poll. In fact, if you are ranking the top receivers in the league you probably would put Allen and Adams right next to each other.
The rest of the supporting cast goes to the Chargers. Mike Williams is the better no. 2 option and that gap is bigger than the gap between Tyron Johnson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Robert Tonyan was solid last season but Rodgers made him and the Chargers have a very deep tight end room. Jared Cook is arguably a better deep threat and the Chargers have a fantastic red zone target in Donald Parham.
Then we have Austin Ekeler and Aaron Jones. Jones is arguably the better pure runner but Ekeler is the best receiving back in the league not named Christian McCaffrey. He too will be a weapon in the passing game for Justin Herbert to target.
Herbert has the advantage when it comes to the weapons around and Rodgers has the advantage in the offensive line. We know how naturally talented he is and he is going to take a step up while having the same situation that the reigning MVP has.
That is promising and one more important detail will push Herbert slightly over Rodgers.
2. Justin Herbert and the LA Chargers face must easier defenses
The situations are similar and Justin Herbert is going to take that leap to get into the elite quarterback conversation in year two. The final cherry on top that will lead to him having a better season than Aaron Rodgers is the defenses he has to play.
Herbert benefits from playing easier pass defenses than Rodgers and that is going to reflect on the numbers. While the Chargers do play some tough defenses, for the most part, it is smooth sailing.
Only three of the Chargers’ 14 opponents in 2021 ranked in the top 10 in passing yards allowed per game. Granted, things change year-over-year and defenses get better or worse but that is already a good sign.
Green Bay has to play much tougher opponents. While they benefit in getting two matchups against Detroit and getting to play other poor NFC defenses such as Seattle, they also have to play some of the best defenses in the league.
The Packers have to play the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and 10th ranked passing defenses in the league last season. That is almost half the season that is exclusively against the cream of the crop.