AccuScore: NFL Playoff Shifts Week 14

By Ernie Padaon
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Even with our win over the Bills, we are losing ground to the Broncos. The Donkeys are a win away from knocking us out of contention for the division, but there is still a slight chance that we can pull it off.

Here is the AccuScore article: NFL PLAYOFF SHIFTS WEEK 14

By Jonathan Lee

AccuScore Analyst

AccuScore provides football predictions and projections by calculating the precise probability teams have of winning each game, their division, and making the playoffs. Using projected lineups, football predictions are created by simulating each game of the season one play at a time, up to 10,000 to 20,000 times. Visit AccuScore for weekly updates for all football and sports predictions.


Rookie T.J. Yates led Houston to history Sunday with a dramatic comeback victory over San Francisco. The win clinched the AFC South and the first playoff spot in history for the Texans. Right now, the team also holds tiebreakers over New England and Baltimore for the top seed in the AFC. The Patriots should be the next team to clinch their division as they are 99.8 percent likely to do so according to simulations. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are still battling for the AFC North crown and seeding with the Ravens currently leading at 58.2 percent probability.

Tim Tebow and the Broncos made the biggest jump this week after finally taking over the lead in the AFC West outright. Denver gained 21.7 percentage points in playoff probability, and is 62.3 percent likely to win the division. On the flip side, Oakland dropped 15.7 percentage points to be just 34.1 percent likely to reach the playoffs. San Diego kept its slim hopes of salvaging the season alive with another win, but still lost ground because of the Denver win. The Chargers make the playoffs in fewer than 1 in 10 simulations.

With Baltimore and Pittsburgh both 10-3, there is only 1 remaining playoff spot available in the AFC. The Jets have won three straight games and are currently the most likely team to win the final Wild Card spot. New York gained over 20 percentage points in playoff probability from last week, and is 46.1 percent likely to make the postseason. Despite a run of poor form, Oakland is still next in line at 34.1 percent. Tennessee couldn’t pull off the upset against New Orleans and is 24.4 percent probability. The biggest loser this week was Cincinnati. The shocking last second loss to Houston eliminated the Bengals from a shot (albeit long) at the AFC North, and pushed them to back of the line for the Wild Card. They are currently 7-6 and make the playoffs in just 15.3 percent of simulations.