AccuScore : NFL Playoff Shifts Week 13

By Ernie Padaon
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Somehow we are still alive with a wimpering little pulse, but it is still beating. As long as it is beating, Philip Rivers and the Chargers will “FIGHT LIKE CRAZY” to get those wins. Let’s see if the other teams can fall apart at the end of this season though.

By Jonathan Lee

AccuScore Analyst

AccuScore provides football predictions and projections by calculating the precise probability teams have of winning each game, their division, and making the playoffs. Using projected lineups, football predictions are created by simulating each game of the season one play at a time, up to 10,000 to 20,000 times. VisitAccuScore for weekly updates for all football and sports predictions.


Tim Tebow did it again. After more late game drama – this time in Minnesota – Tebow led his team to a win. Denver has now won 6 of its last 7 games, and took over first place on the strength of a tiebreaker against Oakland. The Raiders are still the slight favorites according to the computers, winning the AFC West 45.9 percent of the time. The Broncos win the division 41.6 percent of the time. A week ago the Raiders were nearly 80 percent likely to reach the playoffs. Now they are just a 50-50. Denver basically has the same odds as Oakland to reach the postseason, gaining nearly 19 percentage points over last week. San Diego kept its slim hopes alive for a late run at the division title with its first win in eight weeks.

Aside from the AFC West, the other divisions look to be all but over. New England is the leader in the East, Houston in the South, and either Baltimore or Pittsburgh in the North. Whichever team doesn’t win the North will take one Wild Card spot. That leaves one spot open in the postseason with four 7-5 teams vying for it.

Both West teams are in contention for the final Wild Card depending on which ultimately wins the division. The other squads involved are the Bengals, Titans, and Jets. After Week 13, AccuScore simulations favor both AFC West teams to make the postseason. Cincinnati is next at just under 40 percent probability, but that is 17.7 percentage points worse than a week ago. Tennessee gained 8.6 percentage points after a solid win over the Bills. The Titans are 31.7 percent likely for the playoffs. New York is really in a bind because it does not currently hold tiebreakers against its direct competition for the final playoff spot.