With the 11th Pick, in the NFL Draft: Who am I gonna pick?

By James Fedewa

This is the real deal mock draft, so make sure you print this out and prepare to watch your NFL Draft with a pen, pencil, highlighter and printout lists. You won’t find a better mock draft that this one here. After 8 versions, based on pure player talent/projections and team need, this will probably be a better version than you would see on larger networks like CBS, ESPN and NFL.

This draft should be filled with several draft-day trades, and one trade can bust a mock draft (or one odd-ball team selection. Look for Here’s my latest NFL Mock Draft (with no projected trades):

San Diego Chargers Select:

#11 Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma – With the media OVER-HYPE of some offensive linemen this year, reality sets in, and three quarterbacks are selected in the top ten. Although I have Arizona selecting left tackle Eric Fisher in this mock draft, I do believe the Cardinals pass on an offensive linemen for a premier pass rushing prospect. Arizona will draft a quarterback with their second round pick, and if they pass on pass on a pass rusher in the 1^st and 2^nd round, there will be none in the third round and pass rusher is the most glaring need. San Diego will have their choice as several O-Line prospects, including Eric Fisher.

#45 Sam Montgomery, OLB/DE, LSU – A very lucky selection for San Diego, although maybe a slight luxury pick in the 2^nd round (since the Chargers are so thin on the defensive line).  San Diego needs depth at OLB and Montgomery can step in at (situational) nickel/dime pass rusher. Montgomery is a very good pass rusher, but he did say some things at the combine (about taking plays off at LSU), so some teams question his motor. Sometimes being brutally honesty can cost you being selected in the first round.

#76 Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff – Armstead is loaded with talent but is extremely raw and needs time to marinate in the NFL. Some suggest Armstead will be selected early in the second round, but I don’t think he’s ready to start in 2013 (and the 2^nd round is full of great starting material players that will go ahead of him). Armstead will need at least a year of NFL coaching and he came to the right place in San Diego (with new o-line coach Joe D’alessandris). With him sliding to the 3^rd round, SD is shocked that he’s there and are going to have to push defensive line back till the 4^th or 5^th round. I’m not 100% sure if Armstead is a pro-bowl left tackle, but he could be a premier guard.

(4^th round: NT / 5^th round: DE / 6^th round: SS / 7^th round: CB)

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The NFL Draft is like no other event in professional sports and gets more notoriety than some actual games. Not everyone can be an NFL player, but most football fans would love to run a franchise. So, in comes the mock draft (a “personal selection” of how you’d pick your team).

Jan 4, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas A

By James Fedewa

The NFL Draft is next week and the Kansas City Chiefs are on the clock. There are three top tier left tackles in 2013 NFL draft and all should be able to start day one: Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M), Eric Fisher (Central Michigan) and Lane Johnson (Oklahoma). Fans and analysts anticipate the Chiefs selecting left tackle Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M), even though they currently have a very good left tackle Branden Albert. There are seven teams that could draft a left tackle in the first round (Chiefs, Jaguars, Eagles, Lions, Cardinals, Chargers and Dolphins). Seven teams, three elite left tackle prospects…

Base on 1^st round projections and objective estimations, here are some (subjective) percentages of positional team-needs for those 7 left tackle needy teams (within the first dozen draft picks):

1. Chiefs (#1 pick): Joeckel is the consensus prediction. (60% chance of drafting a LT / 25% Defensive Line / 15% Outside Linebacker)
2. Jaguars (#2 pick): Currently have a quality left tackle in Eugene Monroe. He’ll be a free agent next season (and a franchise tag could be set for him in 2014, if necessary). Not projected to draft a left tackle, but could happen. (20% chance of drafting a LT / 50% pass rusher / 30% quarterback)
3. Eagles (#4 pick): Currently have a very good left tackle (Jason Peters), but he’s returning from a major Achilles injury. At 31 years old, Peters is expected back healthy, but Philadelphia could draft a left tackle to get younger (or BPA). The Eagles are changing defensive schemes to a 3-4 base and need to draft a defensive players early to fit their new system (20% chance of drafting a LT / 20% quarterback / 20% defensive line / 20% pass rusher / 20% cornerback)
4. Lions (#5 pick): Lost both of their tackles from retirement and free agency. Detroit did draft a first round tackle in the 2012 draft (Riley Rieff), but is he a right or left tackle? The Lions could draft another left tackle early, but have several holes to fill. They could draft a right tackle later in the draft for less. (30% chance of drafting a LT / need a 30% pass rusher / 40% cornerback)
5. Cardinals (#7 pick): Currently have a left tackle in Levi Brown, who was lost early in 2012 with a season ending injury. Brown is an average left tackle but an average left tackle is still a good left tackle. They could upgrade at left tackle and shift Brown to right tackle, but current 2^nd year starter Bobby Massie played very well and improved down the stretch. (30% chance of drafting a LT / 30% pass rusher / 20% guard / 20% Quarterback)
6. Chargers (#11 pick): San Diego cut left tackle Jared Gaither after one terrible season, signed backup left tackle King Dunlap and there is an obvious hole and need (50% chance of drafting a left tackle / 20% Guard / 15% defensive tackle / 15% pass rusher)
7. Dolphins (#12): Lost left tackle Jake Long to free agency, but drafted projected replacement Jonathan Martin in 2012. Could trade up to get a left tackle in the draft, but have several other needs. In all likely hood, the top three left tackles should be unavailable at #12(15% chance of drafting a left tackle from trading up / 40% cornerback / 30% pass rusher / 15% right tackle)

So who’s going where?

For the above 7 teams (baring any other trade, salary cap cuts or trades), based on the estimated team-need (TN) percentages and best player available (BPA), projections may look like:

• Chiefs (BPA): Luke Joeckel, LT Texas A&M
• Jaguars (BPA): Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
• Eagles (TN): Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
• Lions (TN): Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
• Cardinals (TN): Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
• Chargers (BPA): Eric Fisher, LT, Central Michigan
• Dolphins (BPA): Lane Johnson, LT, Oklahoma

Round 1 options:

1. OT Lane Johnson

• This is the obvious pick if he’s still available at 11. He plays the LT position, has the most upside of all tackles, and the Chargers flew to Oklahoma to hold a private workout. He could be gone because Clevland can trade back with the dolphins or saints who also really like Johnson. Or, Tennessee at 10 can trade back with the same two teams.

2. OG Chance Warmack

• Also like Johnson, Warmack could be gone before 11. He’s considered the safest pick in the draft and can fill that void at LG ever since Kris Dielman retired. While we have Johnnie Troutman, he’ll probably compete with Chad Rinehart for the RG spot. Warmack also visited the Chargers, but he came to San Diego and ate In-N-Out animal style. If that isn’t love then I don’t know what is lol.

3. Trade Back

• In the worst case scenario, all three tackles will be gone and both guards are taken as well. If this happens, then the Chargers should trade back if they can and get an extra 2nd round pick. The Chargers can target ILB Manti Te’o to play alongside Donald Butler. While we have Jonas Mouton, I’m not sold on him starting. Te’o had a private workout with the Chargers so there is interest, but the question is how much.

Round 2 options:

If OT Lane Johnson is selected.

• If the Chargers get OT Lane Johnson, then they can focus on the defense and select an ILB in Manti Te’o, if he falls (probably not), ILB Kevin Minter who plays similar to Takeo Spikes, but just a younger version, (hopefully doesn’t have that playoffs curse too), or another ILB in Kiko Alonso who is healthy and the Chargers went to his pro day and held a private workout with him so they’re very interested. He’s an option in round 2 because the Chiefs can take him at the beginning of round 3, so it depends how much the Chargers want him.

If OG Chance Warmack is selected.

• If the Chargers select OG Chance Warmack, then this pick has to be on OT Terron Armstead. Armstead is a big athlete who like Johnson has a lot of upside, but the question is if he can start from day 1. New GM Tom Telesco has said that the Chargers aren’t going to draft project players, they’ll target people who can contribute right away.

If the Chargers trade back.

• With the Chargers trading back and selecting ILB Manti Te’o in round 1, they have two second round picks now. The first pick can be on an OT like Terron Armstead who I previously talked about and the second 2nd round pick can be on a pass rusher like Sio Moore or Sam Montgomery. Moore really heated up at the East-West Shrine game and the Chargers talked to him for a bit and Montgomery who played for LSU had a private workout with the Chargers. Sio Moore played at UCONN with Kendall Reyes so there could be a connection there and Sam Montgomery could be a 1st round talent, but there are concerns about his work ethic.

Round 3 options:

If the Chargers go OT and ILB in the first two rounds.

• While this is the best case scenario it sometimes doesn’t happen. In round three, the Chargers can target a RB or CB. The RB Le’veon Bell is the type of back who is a durable hard nosed back that has the athletic ability to hurdle people or run through them. He prides himself catching the ball out of the backfield and blitz pick-up. le’Veon Bell has the potential to be the best RB in this class and if Ryan Mathews gets injured again he can carry the load. The CB the Chargers can target is Leon McFadden out of SDSU. He could be our 4th round pick, but if teams start selecting CBs then we might have to draft him early. Since McFadden played for SDSU, he knows the Chargers field better than other prospects because that is where they played their home games. McFadden won’t be a sideline starter, but he can be that nickel corner for us. With Marcus Gilchrist and Shareece Wright battling it out for the other starting CB spot opposite of Derek Cox there will be a hole to fill at the nickel spot.

If OG and OT are the Chargers first two selections.

• With the Chargers addressing the O-line in round 1 and 2, they can focus on other positions. The ILB position and the RB position should be the highest priority at this point and if ILB Kiko Alonso is available, then he’ll be tough to pass on. The only way he would last this far is if other teams are still worried about his wrist, which its 100% healthy. Like i said previously, the Chiefs could take him at the start of round 3 because they sent everyone to the Oregon pro day and need to find a replacement at ILB because of the death of Jovan Belcher. If Kiko Alonso is gone then RB Le’Veon Bell would be a nice selection. I already talked about him earlier in the trade back round 2 scenario.

If the Chargers trade back in round 1 and select ILB,OT, and pass rusher in round 1 and 2.

• So far, the Chargers have selected ILB Manti Te’o, OT Terron Armstead, and pass rusher Sio Moore. They can focus on finding a reliable RB to back up Ryan Mathews, but also durable enough to get starter carries if Mathews gets injured. That RB is Le’Veon Bell and I already talked about him. If Bell is gone, then the Chargers can get a CB like Leon McFadden whom I already talked about also.

I’m going to to finish rounds 4-7 in my next article because it’s getting too long. I’ll have a link to part 1 of my mock draft on my part 2 article if you guys wanted to see it.

Have a great day and stay classy San Diego.

-Thomas Bell