Charger vs Chiefs – Looking Toward Sunday

Chargers vs. ChiefsAfter last Sunday I could use a good blowout. Some people don’t like blowouts. I love them. There is nothing better than watching your team totally dominate a foe. Unfortunately I think the Charger are in for a close one this Sunday.

The NumbersChiefs Offense – 16th in points (23.8), 21st in yards, 29th in passing, 4th in rushing.Chiefs Defense – 5th in points (20.2), 14th in yards, 7th against the pass, 23rd against the rush.

Since week one the Chargers have averaged 29.4 pts a game (31.3 at home during that stretch)

The first thing that jumps off the page when you look at the numbers is that points allowed are better than the rest of the stats. The big question is, ‘Why?’ It appears to be reflective of a team that is playing well in the redzone. The Chiefs have allowed 9TD to 12FG.  That’s a pretty good ratio.

I think this will be one of the better defenses that The Chargers have faced this year. They are comparable stat wise to Arizona, Seattle and maybe the Jets.

With that said, the Charger’s offense has not be slowed down, regardless of who they have faced. Since week one the Chargers have averaged 29.4 pts a game (31.3 at home during that stretch).  I don’t see KC slowing us down that much.  Even if they slow us down a little, I still expect the Bolts to score in the upper 20’s.

Chargers Offense – 7th in points (27.3), 12th in yards, 6th in passing, 25th in rushingChargers Defense – 2nd in points (15.2), 3rd in yards, 4th against the pass, 9th against the rush.

I think the offense rolls and the defense will handle the Chiefs.  The numbers support that.  My guess would be 27-20.  WhatifSports has it at 26-21

Bonus stat – TurnoversChiefs -3Chargers +7

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ConcernsThe Chiefs are coming off a bye week. They had time to throw in a few wrinkles. I don’t think they will surprise the offense. PR and the gang seem pretty unshakable right now. My biggest concern is that they will surprise the defense, especially after last week where we seemed surprised on more than one occasion.

Which team will the Chiefs field?  This team has been wildly inconsistent.  Is it the team that lost 26-10 to the Titans? Or the team that beat NE 41-14?  And going along with that, “Which Alex Smith will show up?” Alex had good games against NE and against Miami.  The others were not so good.

Keys to the game1. Keep rolling on offense2. Control the KC run game3. Make Alex Smith uncomfortable4. Win the Turnover Battle

PredictionThe last factor to affect the prediction ~ Home Cooking.  The Chargers will be back to looking like Superbowl contenders this week.  My gut feel prediction is that we will do better than the numbers prediction above… 27-17 Chargers.