October 15, 2012; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17) looks to the endzone before throwing a 11-yard touchdown pass during the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

I'm Not Worried About Rivers.


For some time now, there have been articles flying around the web about Philip Rivers. Most of them site concerns that are well documented, then point to his struggles over the last two seasons, to make the case he somehow needs to be “fixed”. Numbers never lie, but they do not tell the “whole” truth either. Using them out of context, is just as irresponsible. Depending on what numbers you use, you can make a case for Rivers to be traded. So this article isn’t about Rivers, but rather perspective on where in falls with other QB’s

Rivers QB rate 88.6 in 2012. This is not the lowest one he’s had. He was 82.4 in 2007, the year they went 11-5, won two playoff games. he also threw for 21TD an “15INT”. There were only 10 players with a better rating in 2012, two of which (Romo, Rothlisberger) did not make the playoffs. The two who did (Flacco, Dalton) were lower than Rivers. This shows you don’t need 100.0 rating to win a championship, like Rodgers, Manning, RG3, and Wilson had. Flacco won it all, yet threw for 22 TD, 10 INT and 3800 yards with a 87.7 QB rating. By this number alone, maybe the Ravens, Bengals, Giants and Colts should consider their QB to be trade bait as well.

Rivers had the 7th highest Completion percentage at 64.1. That’s higher than Wilson, Rothlisberger, Brees, Brady, Dalton, Eli and Flacco. Only Ryan, Manning, Rodgers, RG3, Romo, Schaub were better. McCoy made the claim that Rivers could be a 70% completion percentage. Why is it so far-fetched to get 6% increase in efficiency from Phillip, when McCoy made Kyle Orton the 4th highest rated passer in the league? Of the 527 passes Rivers attempted, 338 were completed, that’s a little more than 2/3. I think it works out to getting 15 or 20 more completions for 6% increase (terrible at math). Other comparable QB’s, Manning threw 583 attempts, 400 completions. Rodgers 552 attempts, 371 completions. Schaub 544 attempts, 345 completions. If this is being fixed, then Rivers is not alone.

Rivers was 17th in passing yards with 3,806. The Champ, Flacco was 14th with 3,817. Stafford, Romo, Freeman and Palmer were in the top ten, of 4,000 or more. Yet all those numbers didn’t turn into playoff hopes either.

To sum this up, I’ve seen Rivers in camp at least 4 times. In those observations, he’s been on point. The only thing that has changed, the defense is not giving up the big plays as much. A ball that Rivers used to be able to complete, is being batted down by defensive backs. When I’ve seen him drop back, he is making his reads and not staring down the deep ball. He seemed content to get rid of it, and chuck it to down to Royal, DePalma, Gates, or however was open underneath. It’s a new system. And no matter what I say, it will take time for him to master it. Don’t take my word for it, his head coach seems to be pleased with what he has picked up on. And I’m not worried about his McCoy either.

peace

Next Chargers Game View full schedule »
Monday, Sep 88 Sep7:20at Arizona CardinalsBuy Tickets
Dick's Sporting Goods presents "Hell Week":

Tags: Nfl Offseason Philip Rivers San Diego Chargers

  • 619chargers4life

    Now if u can only post this on the BFTB site . That site makes me sick

    • arnie

      it’s not a slight against them, i just happen to not agree with a lot of there opinions.

      • 619chargers4life

        I don’t agree with nothing John G. says lol nothing .

      • 619chargers4life

        Especially after he went in the sports page sporting a raiders hat after KA dumb choice of gear

    • Adam

      Yes!

    • http://www.standupforkids.org blackroseMD1

      I don’t know man. Dude that wrote the “I’m worried about Rivers” article went to one whole practice. Not sure you can beat that kind of research.

      • arnie

        LOL. is that sarcasm? i’ve been to 4 so far.

        • http://www.standupforkids.org blackroseMD1

          It was sarcasm. I was talking about the “I’m worried about Rivers” articles that showed up over there after one practice.

  • ECAVILLE/Ace of Spades

    I am not worried either. This core of coaches and players will be just fine and soon complete with new hungry talented athletes who love to play football full speed for four quarters and then some!

    • arnie

      playing for 60 minutes alone, i would be pleased. even if they lost.

      • http://www.BoltBeat.com/ Peter Thompson

        Exactly.. I think this team is better than they are getting credit for. But, even if my dreams don’t come true, and we miss the playoffs this year.. I am confident we will not see this team give up like last season… or McCoy, Whiz, Pagano, and especially Coach D are gonna be in everyone’s face like a bunch of rabid gorilla’s!!! I don’t see them giving a post-game presser about how “awfully good they look in practice”, or how “hard they are working to fix the problems”.. praising them to the media… when they come out and do the exact opposite.

        • arnie

          See that right there is what i’m talking about. How many games did the Chargers lose by at least score or less?
          “5″. There were at least five games the Chargers lost by a touchdown or less. They still managed to get 7 wins. is it possible to play 60 minutes of football, to get 3 more wins from those 5 losses? sure.
          Dude a top ten Defense and an Whiz has been to the promised land as OC and HC. I don’t see McCoy trying to put lipstick on a pig either. 16 games. of accountability football.

          • ECAVILLE/Ace of Spades

            Accountability keeps a athlete honest on the playing field. Give it your all or leave.

  • Stefanie Smith

    Good article, arnie. It is a relief to read it. I read that Bolts from the Blue or whoever they are, and I got a knot in my stomach. Thanks.

    • arnie

      thanks Stefanie. i just wanted to give some “perspective” on PR with the facts on display. I’ve always argued you can manipulate the numbers to justify anything. I just happen to believe “why” the numbers have changed, is more important than just the numbers themselves.

      • http://www.BoltBeat.com/ Peter Thompson

        They take stat manipulation to a whole new level.. hahaha. Not that it isn’t entertaining to recite stats, but they start throwing out crazy stuff..

        ‘If the Earth’s gravitational pull was greater, because of it’s trajectory around the sun… and the defenses star player is out, and the running backs had a bad dinner at Denny’s the day before… Rivers threw .018 times more, than if he was playing an away game in December, against a team with 9 or more wins… And THAT is why Rivers isn’t elite’.

        Step away from PFF, and put the keyboard down! LMFAO!!!

        • arnie

          I’ve been there…i moved on and found a new home.
          Bolt Beat Fam 4 Life!

  • Gunnar Martin

    If only fans of OTHER teams would read this…

  • tubbs45

    Statisticians can make numbers say exactly what they want them to say… If they could predict seasons success, well, they’d own NFL teams…. Arnie, keep the faith my brother! they all about to: #GetWizzedOn

  • Adam

    I love your articles Arnie. You make a lot of excellent points. Most of us Chargers fans know this, but the mainstream media are very black and white. Like you said, all about the numbers without reading into it at all or using context. I know these points have been beaten to death on this site, but there are SO many factors playing in Rivers favor this year. From the new scheme, which will fool defenses when he’s going deep, to the run helping, to the line being improved, to more weapons and WR depth and health…I could go on, but the point is, he’s gonna rock this year

    • 619chargers4life

      It should be a awesome season , can’t wait !!!!

    • arnie

      Thanks Adam. i’m just as determined to beat the drum for the Truth, as the media is for ratings, site hits, etc.

  • Lee

    Good insight. I think where rivers is getting the most criticism is the turnovers. He has thrown interceptions and fumbled at critical times. If he gets rid of those turnovers we’re in good shape

    • arnie

      I agree. That is another fact that gets screwed and i don’t like it. See the word “turnovers” is used a lot when speaking about Rivers. In Context, turnovers are “all inclusive”, Interceptions are specific. What i mean is Rivers can step back to pass, get stripped, and he is charged with the “turnover”. In context, did PR hold onto the ball to long? or did someone not block their man? my point is, this is something that does not directly involve just “his” skills, which is being the passer. yet he get’s the credit for the “turnover”. This is something that is not equally applied when talking about “other” QB’s. Rivers had 15 INT in 2012, it’s not the first time, nor is this his highest. However, the league Average was 14. he threw “ONE” pick over the league avg, and he needs to be fixed?

      Brees, Romo threw 19, Sanchez, Luck, 18, Freeman, Stafford, Weedon, 17, Fitzpatrick, Dalton 16, Eli, Rivers, 15. The other side holds true with Passing. a ball could bounce of the receivers, get picked off, INT. but that can be placed more on the shoulder of Rivers. Did he make late throw? was he hurried? if so, he should have thrown it away. DB makes a great play, takes it back for six, not much he could do. it happens. Everyones covered, PR get flushed from the pocket, an he throws it up for grabs? that’s on PR.

      sorry for the soap box..

      an thanks again.

      • Lee

        I agree but you can’t ignore the fact that we have lost some games that we should have won because either he fumbled (see kc game) or thrown an int in the endzone (see Cincinnati game last year). We’ll still win A decent amount of games but we’ve had trouble recently winning the close ones

        • arnie

          No Lee i don’t deny it at all. it’s unacceptable. I just make the distinction between the two. PR wasn’t ready for the snap in KC, Hardwick apologized yet PR took the blame for it. Turnovers cost the whole team, i’m just not of the opinion it makes Rivers a crappy QB that’s on his last chance.

          • Lee

            PR has just been pretty unlucky with a lot of stuff. I agree he’s still one of the better qb’s in the league imo. He’ll be fine I just think he gets hated on by most experts for these turnovers. He’ll have a good year and get back into the elite I think. Good article with great insight tho

  • Mz. Sarah

    That’s what’s up Arnie!!! I’m so tired of hearing and reading all the negative and shoulda coulda woulda crap about Rivers and the Chargers period! Love me some Chargers!!!