AccuScore: NFL Playoff Shifts Week 12

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Check out how low of a chance we have at making that playoffs now! We lost 15% and now hvae a 3.9% chance of winning the division.

So you are saying we have a chance?!

Get that thought out of your head!! This is not our year and we get to say our favorite phrase “There is always next year!”

By Jonathan Lee

AccuScore Analyst

AccuScore provides football predictions and projections by calculating the precise probability teams have of winning each game, their division, and making the playoffs. Using projected lineups, football predictions are created by simulating each game of the season one play at a time, up to 10,000 to 20,000 times. VisitAccuScore for weekly updates for all football and sports predictions.

AFC

The Raiders have taken over the lead in the AFC West at 7-4 after winning 3 in a row. They are 75.2 percent likely to win the division and currently hold a one game lead over the Broncos. Tim Tebow has led Denver to wins in 4 of the last 5 games, making his team the biggest gainer in the projected standings this week. The Broncos are 20.1 percent likely to win the division. San Diego has fallen off a cliff losing six games in a row, and now, the Chargers only have a 4.6 percent chance at making the playoffs. The Chiefs are going nowhere fast with Tyler Palko and are almost eliminated from the playoff chase.

Three AFC North teams are again projected as playoff teams this week. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are both better than 96 percent likely to reach the postseason. The Ravens, though, have the inside track at the division at 51.5 percent followed by the Steelers at 42.6 percent. Cincinnati is the leader for the final Wild Card spot making the playoffs 57.5 percent of the time. Cleveland has actually played some decent football of late, but the Browns reached 0.0 percent in playoff probability this week.

Houston is down to its third string quarterback, but still leads the AFC South by two games and is the overwhelming favorite to win the division. The Texans did lose 5.2 percentage points in playoff probability this week, but they are still 89.6 percent likely to reach the postseason. Tennessee still has a chance of catching the Texans, gaining 6.9 percentage points in this week’s projections. Jacksonville fell to 0.0 percent probability after another loss. Indianapolis has an 18.5 percent chance of finishing the season winless.

New England is getting closer to lock status for the playoffs at 99.6 percent probability. The Jets survived a battle with division rival Buffalo to stay in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. New York is still in a precarious position, but reaches the playoffs in 21.6 percent of simulations. Buffalo was effectively eliminated with the loss, losing 9.5 percentage points this week. Miami came close to winning its fourth in a row; but instead, the Dolphins were eliminated completely from playoff contention according to AccuScore simulations.

AFC WEEK 12 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 12 WK 13 % DIFF WIN DIV
DENVER BRONCOS 20.3% 29.7% 9.4% 20.1%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 49.0% 57.5% 8.5% 5.9%
TENNESSEE TITANS 16.3% 23.1% 6.9% 13.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 75.1% 78.9% 3.8% 75.2%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 92.9% 96.3% 3.4% 51.5%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 98.8% 99.6% 0.8% 99.4%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 0.9% 0.9% -0.1% 0.8%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 97.3% 96.9% -0.4% 42.6%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.7% 0.0% -0.7% 0.0%
NEW YORK JETS 23.2% 21.6% -1.6% 0.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS 94.8% 89.6% -5.2% 87.0%
BUFFALO BILLS 10.5% 1.5% -9.0% 0.2%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 20.0% 4.6% -15.4% 3.9%


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