AccuScore: NFL Playoff Shifts Week 6

By Jonathan Lee

AccuScore Analyst

AccuScore provides football predictions and projections by calculating the precise probability teams have of winning each game, their division, and making the playoffs. Using projected lineups, football predictions are created by simulating each game of the season one play at a time, up to 10,000 to 20,000 times. Visit AccuScore for weekly updates for all football and sports predictions.

AFC

The Bengals are somehow 4-2 and have won 3 games in a row. Still, Cincinnati is not quite a contender making the playoffs in 25.7 percent of simulations but it’s getting close. That number represents a 10.3 percentage point gain from a week ago. The problem is the in-division competition in the AFC North. Baltimore is the favorite for the division at 53.7 percent with Pittsburgh trailing at 40.5 percent. Both teams are well over 80 percent odds to make the postseason. Cleveland is the one North team already out of the picture.

Oakland suffered the biggest drop in the conference despite winning because of the injury to Jason Campbell. The Raiders dropped 12.7 percentage points, but the recent acquisition of veteran Carson Palmer could reverse those fortunes. The Chargers benefitted from the injury despite being off on a bye week gaining 5.7 percentage points to add to their projected AFC West lead. Kansas City and Denver also benefitted slightly but the two teams combine to win the division just 2.2 percent of simulations.

The Jets got a big win on Monday night to reach .500 at 3-3. That moved New York up 4.9 percentage points which would have been more had it been over a better team than Miami. The Dolphins are now the first team to reach 0.0 percent in playoff odds, and they are well on their way to winning the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Buffalo suffered a heartbreaker to New York this week, one that could be critical in the standings. The Bills fell to 44.5 percent playoff odds and would slot in the final Wild Card spot in the AFC for now. New England continues to roll as the most likely playoff participant in the AFC.

Houston didn’t look great without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams in a loss to the Ravens. To be fair, Baltimore’s defense shuts down most teams, but Johnson’s injury has to be a bit of a concern given how much Matt Schaub relies on him in the passing game. The Texans are still the favorite in the AFC South for now at nearly 63 percent for the division. Tennessee is next at 34.7 percent, and made only minimal gains because of a bye. Jacksonville and Indianapolis are a combined 1-11 and win the division a combined 2.5 percent of the time.

AFC WEEK 6 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 6 WK 7 % DIFF WIN DIV
CINCINNATI BENGALS 15.4% 25.7% 10.3% 5.3%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 83.6% 89.3% 5.7% 82.4%
NEW YORK JETS 21.5% 26.4% 4.9% 5.1%
TENNESSEE TITANS 35.2% 38.9% 3.7% 34.7%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 85.8% 89.0% 3.2% 53.7%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 94.1% 95.9% 1.8% 83.1%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 3.0% 4.7% 1.6% 1.9%
DENVER BRONCOS 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 1.7% 1.5% -0.2% 1.5%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 1.4% 1.1% -0.4% 1.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 5.2% 2.7% -2.5% 0.4%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 86.6% 83.9% -2.6% 40.5%
HOUSTON TEXANS 68.9% 64.7% -4.2% 62.8%
BUFFALO BILLS 53.2% 44.5% -8.6% 11.9%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 43.4% 30.8% -12.7% 15.4%
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